How big is the Irish heat pump market in 2026?

This guide gathers SEAI's published heat pump figures as of November 2026, shows how to turn the 2030 targets into a yearly figure, and says what that does and does not tell you about your own business.

How many heat pumps are sold in Ireland each year?

SEAI estimates that about 37,600 heat pumps were sold in Ireland in 2024, 19% more than in 2023. That took the total installed stock to an estimated 153,500 or more.

The figures in circulation measure different things, so keep them apart:

Source: SEAI, blog post of 7 July 2026 and press release of 21 April 2026.

Do not divide one of these figures by another. The periods and definitions differ: the 20,000 grant-aided installations run over more than seven years, while the sales estimate covers 2024 alone.

The SEAI sources used here give no full-year heat pump sales figure for 2025, so this guide does not estimate one. 2024 is the latest full year.

What are the national targets for 2030?

SEAI states the targets as 400,000 heat pumps installed in existing homes and a further 200,000 in new builds by 2030, which is 600,000 in total. Set against an installed stock of over 153,500 at the end of 2024, the distance to travel is large.

These are national targets, not a sales forecast or a promise of grant funding. The heat pump grant changed twice in 2026; the detail is in selling with the SEAI heat pump grant.

How many SEAI-registered heat pump contractors are there?

SEAI said in July 2026 that over 600 contractors across Ireland are registered and available to install heat pumps under its home energy upgrades grant programme. Since January 2024, 88 contractors have registered, which is under 15% of that total.

SEAI describes the supply chain as still catching up with demand. Its own workforce analysis counts about 9,900 plumbers, heating and ventilation engineers working in the construction sector in 2019, and forecasts that 4,206 additional plumbing entrants will be needed for retrofit work from 2024 to 2030. Those figures cover retrofit as a whole, not only heat pumps.

Read the register with two cautions:

• Registration is not activity. It shows that a contractor can work under the grant, not how many jobs it completes a year.
• It is a national count on one date. It says little about competition in your own area.

Registration can also lead to work: SEAI says a registered contractor can work as a contractor or sub-contractor for an existing One Stop Shop. See working with SEAI One Stop Shops. If you are not on the register yet, the steps are in heat pump installer training and registration.

Did the 2026 grant changes lift demand?

Applications rose sharply in early 2026, but the published figures cannot show how much of that came from the grant. SEAI reported over 350 heat pump applications in the first quarter of 2026, up 95% on the same quarter of 2025.

Heat pumps moved with the wider market. Overall SEAI applications were up 96%, with 29,000 processed in the quarter, and applications for individual upgrades were up 186%. A new windows and doors grant alone drew over 7,000 applications.

That quarter also contained the 3 February increase in the heat pump grant to up to €12,500, set out in SEAI's heat pump grant blog, and the National Residential Retrofit Plan announced in January 2026, which phased in new, more affordable measures. Several changes arrived together, so none can be isolated.

SEAI then announced a €2,000 boiler scrappage grant on 29 September 2026, with the package opening from 6 October (SEAI's enhanced grants announcement). As of November 2026, SEAI's heat pump system grant page shows a maximum of up to €14,500. The SEAI sources used here give no figures for the period after the announcement, so this guide claims no effect from it.

For scale, SEAI's target for 2026 is 73,000 home energy upgrades, with €640 million allocated in Budget 2026. Its end-of-year statement reported over 58,000 completed in 2025. These are upgrades of every type, not heat pumps alone.

What does the gap between target and pace mean for installers?

On a simple calculation, the 2030 targets need roughly twice the annual sales of 2024. This is arithmetic, not a forecast, and you can redo it whenever SEAI publishes newer figures.

The formula is: required average per year = (T − S) ÷ Y, where T is the target stock, S the installed stock and Y the years left.

1. Add the two targets. 400,000 + 200,000 = 600,000, so T = 600,000.
2. Subtract the installed stock. The latest estimate is 153,500 at the end of 2024, so S = 153,500 and T − S = 446,500.
3. Divide by the years left. From 2025 to the end of 2030 is six years, so 446,500 ÷ 6 is about 74,400 a year.
4. Compare with the latest sales figure. 74,400 against 37,600 sold in 2024 is about twice as many.

If you read "by 2030" as the end of 2029, Y is five and the average becomes about 89,300 a year, roughly 2.4 times the 2024 figure.

The limits matter. SEAI does not say that the stock estimate and the targets are counted the same way, the stock is given as "over" 153,500, and the sum ignores heat pumps that are retired. Treat the result as an order of magnitude.

Three practical points follow for a firm like yours:

• Expect the rules to keep moving. The grant changed on 3 February and again after SEAI's 29 September announcement, so date every figure on a quote.
• Capacity matters. SEAI says the supply chain is still catching up with demand, so the question for you is how many jobs your crews can complete, not only how many customers exist.
• Work out your own share. If you installed H heat pumps in 2024, your share of sales was H ÷ 37,600. Holding that share at 74,400 a year would need about twice as many installations.

Market growth says nothing about what it costs you to win a customer, so work that out separately in the cost to win a heat pump customer. Then decide how you will screen the customers you do get, using qualifying heat pump leads.

Typical mistakes when reading market figures

• Treating applications as installations. An application is not a finished job.
• Using the 2024 estimate as if it were 2026. It is the latest full-year sales figure SEAI gives, not a current one.
• Reading the targets as a forecast. They say where policy wants to be, not where the market will be.
• Counting every registered contractor as an active competitor. Registration shows eligibility, not volume.
• Quoting consumer sites for grant sums. The amounts changed twice in 2026, so use SEAI's own page.

Where can you follow the numbers yourself?

Every figure here comes from an SEAI page you can open, so check each one at source and note the date. Four pages cover most of it:

• SEAI's retrofit sector blog post of 7 July 2026 gives sales, stock, targets and contractor numbers.
• SEAI's application figures for early 2026 gives the growth in applications.
• SEAI's end-of-year statement gives the 2025 totals. It was published in January 2026, so check SEAI's news page early in the new year for the next one.
• SEAI's heat pump systems grant page gives the current grant amounts.

Once a quarter, record these five figures with their date and source, then rerun the gap sum above with the newest stock and years left:

• The latest heat pump sales estimate
• The installed stock
• Heat pump grant applications
• Registered heat pump contractors
• The current maximum heat pump grant

For the wider picture of winning heat pump customers, start from the heat pump installer guide. If you also work in other trades, compare with the Irish solar installer market and EV charger demand in Ireland, and see heat pump replacement and service for work in the existing stock.