How much can you afford to spend to win a heat pump customer?

The most you can spend winning one heat pump customer is set by the profit that job leaves you, not by its price. Work that out first, then judge every channel on what it costs per job won rather than per enquiry received. This guide, part of the heat pump installer series, gives the formulas and lists what to track each month.

The sums in this guide

• Cost per won job: C = T ÷ W
• Cost per survey: U = H × R + V
• Ceiling: L = M × s
• A channel passes when C is at or below L.

T is total channel cost including survey visits, W is jobs won, H is hours per visit, R is your hourly cost, V is travel, M is contribution margin per job and s is the share of M you will spend on winning work.

What is a heat pump job worth to an Irish installer?

SEAI's data puts the median cost of a house heat pump job at about €16,000 to €17,000 (January to June 2026). To you it is worth the profit left after materials, labour, commissioning and aftercare, and only your own books show that.

Source: SEAI, median costs of individual energy upgrades (Better Energy Homes and Solar PV), January to June 2026 data.

These figures are the costs submitted to SEAI by registered contractors and One Stop Shops when the grant was paid, so they say nothing about your margin, and the sheet does not say whether VAT is included. They are medians, so half of the jobs cost less and half cost more. And SEAI's sample of 23,412 completed upgrades covers every measure under the Better Energy Homes and Solar PV schemes, so the heat pump count behind each median is smaller, and SEAI's sheet does not give it.

The grant in the table is the structure from 3 February 2026: €6,500 for the heat pump, €2,000 for radiators and pipework and a €4,000 renewable heating bonus, as SEAI's heat pump grant blog describes it. Since SEAI's enhanced grants announcement of 29 September 2026, SEAI's heat pump system grant page shows up to €14,500 for a house, as of November 2026. Use the medians for scale, not as the price on a new quote. Selling with the SEAI heat pump grant covers the current parts.

How do you calculate your cost per won job?

Divide everything a channel cost you in a period by the jobs you won from it in the same period. Cost per won job (C) = total channel cost (T) ÷ jobs won (W). The channel can be a job platform, bought leads, ads, referrals or subcontract work.

1. Choose one channel and a period long enough for most quotes from it to be decided.
2. Add every cost: fees, credits or subscription, ad budget, agency fees, software, and your own time on calls, visits and quotes at your hourly cost.
3. Define "won" before you count, for example a signed contract. Keep a second count for jobs installed and paid.
4. Divide T by W and write the result down with the dates.

How a channel bills makes no difference to the formula. According to its own website, November 2026, Bark sells credits that you spend to contact customers, shows the credit price before you respond and says credits expire after three months. According to its own website, November 2026, OnlineTradesmen.ie runs a monthly membership with no fixed term and qualification requirements, sends each job to qualified tradespeople in the area and lets the interested ones respond, so the homeowner receives several quotes. An agency's fee belongs in T with the ad budget.

A shared enquiry and an exclusive one go through the same formula: the one with the lower C on your own figures is cheaper. To compare sources, see where to buy solar leads in Ireland and job platforms for electricians. If you take work as a subcontractor, the same sums apply: see working with SEAI One Stop Shops.

How much can you afford to spend to win one customer?

You can afford a share of the contribution margin one job leaves you. Ceiling (L) = contribution margin per job (M) × the share of that margin you will spend on winning work (s).

M is the price you charge minus every cost that grows with the job: materials, installation labour, subcontractors, commissioning and a reserve for call-backs. The margin you build into a quote sets M, so writing a heat pump quote and this sum belong together. The share s is your decision and has to leave room for overheads and the profit you need.

A channel passes when C is at or below L. If C is above L, the channel costs more per job than you have budgeted for winning work, unless it brings value you can measure, such as repeat work or referrals. Set L from the margin, not the customer's price: two jobs at the same price can leave very different margins.

Why does survey time belong in the calculation?

Because a visit that ends without a job is still a cost you carry. Every visit before a quote costs driving, measuring and write-up time, and only some turn into signed jobs.

Cost per survey (U) = hours per visit (H) × your hourly cost (R) + travel (V). With N surveys carried out, N × U belongs in T; then calculate C as before.

The more surveys you need per job won (N ÷ W), the more survey time weighs. A source that sends many enquiries but few signed jobs can cost more per won job than a dearer one that sends fewer, better prepared customers. A phone call before the visit cuts wasted trips, and qualifying heat pump leads covers the questions to ask.

The age of the home matters too. SEAI requires a technical assessment for homes built before 2007, unless a valid BER shows a Heat Loss Indicator of 2.3 W/(K·m²) or less, and as of November 2026 SEAI's heat pump system grant page lists a €200 grant towards it. Ask early where the customer stands: a visit to a job that is not ready is a cost with no job at the end.

A worked example with your own numbers

Fill in this table for one channel over one period. Every entry is a letter or a figure from your own books, so it uses no figures from us.

Run it for two channels over the same period. If both are above L, the problem is your channel mix or your margin, not the month.

Which numbers should you track every month?

Track the chain from spend to paid job, one row per channel, and review it monthly. One month with few jobs is noisy, so judge a channel on the running total.

• Spend per channel, including your own time.
• Enquiries received and how many you reached by phone.
• Surveys carried out and quotes sent.
• Jobs won, and jobs installed and paid.
• Cancellations after signing and before installation.
• Cost per survey, survey-to-win rate (W ÷ N) and cost per won job (C) against your ceiling (L).

SEAI said in July 2026 that over 600 registered contractors are available to install heat pumps under its grant programme, and that 88 have registered since January 2024. With that many firms registered, watch your own win rate, not an average.

Typical mistakes when judging whether leads are worth it

• Dividing by enquiries instead of won jobs. A cheap enquiry that never signs still costs you its price and your time.
• Leaving your own time out. Calls, visits and quotes are costs even when no invoice arrives.
• Using the job price as your margin. SEAI's medians are costs submitted to SEAI, not what you kept.
• Quoting an out-of-date grant. The grant changed on 3 February 2026 and again after SEAI's announcement of 29 September 2026, so check SEAI's page before you plan around a figure.
• Judging a channel on too few jobs, or ignoring jobs that fall away. Wait until enough quotes are decided and count cancellations, or C will look better than it is.
• Borrowing a close rate from a seller. It is the seller's own figure, not a measure of your business. Use your own W ÷ N.